Two Car Bombings in Iraq Kill 41, Many Children

The New York Times > International > Middle East > Two Car Bombings in Iraq Kill 41, Many Children

We keep saying that the worst thing that could happen in Iraq if we pull out is civil war. We should recognize that Iraq is already undergoing a civil war. Many, many more Iraqis have died in this conflict than have Americans. On one side in this conflict are the so-called insurgents or terrorists; on the other side are the Americans, and any Iraqi who has any contact with the Americans. The insurgents see those who have contact with the Americans as legitimate targets, anyway. The Iraqi civil defense force - the police and military forces currently under training - are both targets and fighters in the war. We say that the insurgents are sowing chaos in order to prevent democratic processes in Iraq from producing a legitimate government. They offer no positive plan, we conclude, just destruction. They do have a positive plan, though: get the United States armed forces out of the country.

We have made it plain in our conduct of the war in Iraq that we do not know how to fight our enemies there. If we knew how to fight an enemy so weak that it must resort to suicide car bombings against civilians, we would be taking less casualties now than a year ago, not more. If we knew how to fight this enemy, we would not have lost large population centers to their control. If we could engage this enemy, we could prevent it from acting at will. What has been a fragmented insurgency will become better organized and more determined as the weeks pass. Actually, they've been resolute and willing to take large losses from the beginning, but they haven't had the ability to conduct operations across the entire country. Starting last spring and continuing into this fall, that has changed. Last spring we called it an uprising. This fall we have to recognize the war for what it has become: a civil war.

We are not caught in the middle of this conflict. We created the conditions for it, and we want our side to win. So far, we are losing, even though our opponents are still very weak. If we try to win the war, we'll take more civilian lives than our opponents have taken. If we keep fighting, we can't lose. The only way to end the conflict is to withdraw. If we do that, the insurgents will have achieved their main goal. What's not clear is whether they would continue to attack Iraqi soldiers and civilians after we leave. I'm not sure that they would. Their main enemy is the United States. Still, the conditions might be right for a lengthy civil war. We shouldn't deceive ourselves, however, into thinking that our withdrawal is the factor that allows a civil war to start. It has already started, and it is going to get worse.